Rising powers often face a strategic dilemma when two major powers move towards rapprochement. Analyse how India can safeguard its strategic autonomy in a world increasingly shaped

GS2 International Relations
Rising powers often face a strategic dilemma when two major powers move towards rapprochement. Analyse how India can safeguard its strategic autonomy in a world increasingly shaped by China-US bilateral arrangements.

Analyze

  • 10 marks
  • 8 min
  • 150 words
  • Medium

The Hindu

Read article →

Introduction

The emerging global order is increasingly influenced by the complex interplay between the United States and China, the world’s two largest powers. Any potential rapprochement or selective cooperation between them on trade, technology or security issues may create strategic uncertainty for rising powers like India. In this context, safeguarding strategic autonomy remains central to India’s foreign policy.

Strategic dilemmas for India

1. Risk of marginalisation

  • Bilateral understandings between the US and China on:

    • Trade
    • Climate change
    • Technology standards
    • Indo-Pacific stability may reduce strategic space for middle powers.

2. Security concerns

  • China’s assertiveness along the LAC and in the Indian Ocean directly affects India’s security interests.
  • Simultaneously, excessive dependence on the US may constrain independent decision-making.

3. Economic vulnerabilities

  • India remains economically linked to both powers:

    • Trade dependence on China
    • Technology and investment ties with the US

Measures to safeguard strategic autonomy

1. Strengthening multi-alignment

  • India should deepen partnerships with:

    • QUAD countries
    • Europe
    • ASEAN
    • West Asia
    • Africa without entering rigid alliances.

  • This diversifies strategic options and reduces overdependence.

2. Building domestic capabilities

  • Strategic autonomy ultimately depends on national strength.

  • Focus areas:

    • Defence indigenisation
    • Semiconductor ecosystem
    • Critical minerals
    • Artificial Intelligence and cyber capabilities

3. Enhancing regional leadership

  • Through initiatives such as:

    • SAGAR
    • Global South outreach
    • BIMSTEC and IORA India can emerge as a balancing and stabilising power.

4. Maintaining issue-based cooperation

  • India can cooperate with both the US and China selectively:

    • With the US in technology and Indo-Pacific security
    • With China in BRICS, SCO and climate negotiations

5. Reforming multilateral institutions

  • India should advocate inclusive multipolarity and reforms in:

    • UNSC
    • WTO
    • Global financial institutions

Value Addition

  • Jaishankar Doctrine: “India is not non-aligned; India is multi-aligned.”
  • Kautilya’s Mandala Theory: flexible alliances based on national interest.
  • India’s participation in both QUAD and SCO reflects strategic balancing.

Conclusion

India’s strategic autonomy in a China-US dominated world requires a calibrated balance between engagement, deterrence and diversification. By strengthening domestic capabilities, pursuing multi-alignment and championing a multipolar order, India can preserve independent decision-making while enhancing its role as a leading global power.